Jurrjens to Drop-Off?

Yahoo! Fantasy Expert Brad Evans has come to the conclusion that Jair Jurrjens will soon see a major drop off in performance.

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/mlb/...e-noise_052809


"Lowdown: Listing Jurrjens, who has allowed three earned runs or more in only one start, on a list filled with fantasy bums may seem completely ludicrous, but based on his underlying numbers, he needs to be shopped. Glancing at the surface totals, the Braves righty has pitched brilliantly. On the year, he’s posted a 2.07 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Per Baseball Monster, he’s currently the 18th-best starter in virtual baseball. But based on his incredibly fortunate .255 BABIP, his ERA is expected to climb. More disturbing, he’s transformed from a ground-ball inducer into a fly-ball producer, evident in his dramatic GB/FB decrease (’08: 1.94, ’09: 0.91). As his 3.74 FIP forecasts, several rough outings could be ahead."

This is pretty interesting, I've actually agreed with this a few starts ago but something he neglects to add is that Jair is doing this successful with a minuscule 1.59 K/BB ratio which is bound to get him in trouble. Jair has been great so far and he will be an extremely solid starter for a long time, but if the Braves are having this much trouble winning while Jair is pitching far over his head the team could be in serious trouble once he begins to come back to life.

Of course, not many expected him to end the season with a 2.07 ERA or 1.18 WHIP so everyone expects at least some type of regression, but the regression I foresee, unless he begins to strikeout or walk more batters, would see a regression similar if not worse to last seasons numbers. He is currently striking out significantly less batters this season than last season and this could cause problems due to the inevitable rise in his BABIP.

Management to Blame for KJ's Results?

In 2007 Kelly had the exact approach that Chipper mentioned in this article. Going into last season Pendleton and Cox preached being more aggressive in order to limit the strikeouts. The results were a higher batting average, lower on base percentage, lower slugging percentage, and less home runs. He saw almost 200 less pitches last year compared to the season before despite having 6 more plate appearances. I can't directly blame anyone but Kelly for this, but when a coach preaches aggressiveness and not patience it is easy to see how much this can change a hitter over the course of a full season.

Jordan Schafer in April

Jordan Schafer has actually been our most productive bat so far this season. I don't think many of us expected this to be true at the end of April but his patience combined with his power is what has made him have the second highest OPS behind Chipper. He has had 71 plate appearances and has 7 extra base hits and 12 walks. At this time his isoOBP is at an astonishing .126. Also, through the first month of the season he also is posting up better numbers vs. lefties than righties.

The '09 Braves and Home Runs.

The '09 Braves are definitely a team that lacks those pure power hitters that will get you 30 home runs. However, unlike most other teams every player in the lineup will hit 10 homers at minimum. Guys like Kelly Johnson, Jeff Francoeur, Brian McCann, and Chipper Jones should all level off at around 25 home runs and Jordan Schafer, Matt Diaz/Garrett Anderson, Casey Kotchman, and Yunel Escobar should all hit about 15. This makes this lineup extremely tough to pitch against considering how many players have the ability to hit doubles and homers in any given at bat.

The Braves are currently second in doubles, home runs, extra base hits, slugging percentage, and on base plus slugging percentage. The Braves have been able to net ten home runs in the first five games this season. Of the 10 home runs that the Braves have hit, four have come against lefties. Kelly Johnson already has two against lefties (one last year), Schafer has one, and Chipper has one.

Coming into the season I was concerned of our lefty dominated lineup. We all know Kelly hits them well but he usually sacrifices his power numbers and becomes more of a singles hitter against lefties. If these guys can continue to hit lefties for power our offense will continue to surprise even the most avid Braves fans let alone the rest of the baseball community.

Trading Anderson and Extending Chipper

Josh Anderson: Last night the Braves determined that Jordan Schafer would be the starting center fielder and traded Josh Anderson. Anderson had no options but was expendable due to Schafer and Gregor Blanco. The Braves also have Gorkys Hernandez in the lower levels to fill out the center field depth chart. This was absolutely the move that the Braves needed to make. Jordan Schafer proved to the Braves that he was ready both offensively and defensively. Schafer is in the mold of Grady Sizemore and while he may not perform to those expectations this year, getting him 500 at bats this season gives him the opportunity to eventually reach that potential. The outfield situation has so many question marks but if Schafer is able to be as productive as he was this Spring and Anderson and Francoeur are able to be solid corner outfielders our lineup looks surprisingly strong.

Chipper Jones: Jones was extended until 2012 for roughly $40 million with a team option for 2013. This could keep Jones under contract until his 41st birthday. On one side you have to be happy that Chipper will be a Brave for his entire career but on the other you have to question giving that type of contract to a player who averages 126 games in the past 5 seasons. Chipper will always be productive when he is healthy, but the older he gets the more injury prone he will be. Expect him to play less and less games each season and for this contract to eventually be a hindrance to the franchise.